The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the primary driver of Europe's mild climate, transporting warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northward. Driven by thermohaline circulation — differences in temperature and salinity — the AMOC depends on brine rejection to maintain its flow. Increasing freshwater input from glacial melt is weakening this mechanism. Recent research using CMIP6 models projects roughly a 50% weakening by 2100, while other models using the Community Earth System Model suggest a potential tipping point leading to near-total collapse. A full collapse would cause severe climate disruption across Europe (colder, drier conditions), shift precipitation patterns in the Amazon, Africa, and Australia, and could take millennia to recover. The root cause is tied to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions accelerating glacial melt and freshwater forcing into the Atlantic.
