Beijing’s AI master plan has South Africa in its sights
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China's 15th five-year plan (2026-2030) marks a strategic pivot from chip manufacturing to AI deployment and export. The plan mentions AI over 50 times, designates robotics as a strategic industry, and sets out a global agenda including a World AI Cooperation Organisation and Belt and Road AI platforms targeting Global South nations. For South Africa, this creates both opportunity — cheaper clean energy, BRICS computing access, smart-manufacturing partnerships — and risk. South African solar imports from China jumped 81.4% year-on-year, yet China scrapped its solar export tax rebate, threatening price increases. The foundational AI and hardware layers remain in China while South Africa would receive only the application layer. Analysts warn that countries faring best in US-China AI competition are those that articulate their own AI priorities early and negotiate from a position of strong data protection rules — a challenge South Africa's still-draft AI policy has yet to meet.
