Ten years after the Brexit referendum, a National Bureau of Economic Research study estimates the UK economy is 6-8% smaller than it would have been had the country remained in the EU. Investment fell 12-13%, employment and productivity each dropped 3-4%, and the pound has never recovered to pre-referendum levels. Seven prime ministers have held office since the vote, with Keir Starmer becoming the sixth to resign. New trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, India, and Japan have not offset the loss of frictionless EU single market access. UK goods exports are 13-15% below counterfactual projections. The tech sector presents a paradox: valued at £1.2 trillion and leading Europe, yet hampered by immigration barriers that slow EU talent recruitment and complicate data flows. Demographically, 2025 is projected to be the last year births exceeded deaths in England and Wales, with net migration the only population growth driver going forward. Public opinion has shifted, with 57% of Britons now saying leaving was wrong, and Reform UK leading Westminster voting polls at 27%.
