--- title: Constance Crozier: Forecasting s-curves is hard | daily.dev description: A repost and preservation of Constance Crozier's 2020 blog post explaining why forecasting S-curves is difficult while living through them. Using animated... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/constance-crozier-forecasting-s-curves-is-hard-46qpq5gvu twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: Constance Crozier: Forecasting s-curves is hard | daily.dev og:description: A repost and preservation of Constance Crozier's 2020 blog post explaining why forecasting S-curves is difficult while living through them. Using animated... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/constance-crozier-forecasting-s-curves-is-hard-46qpq5gvu og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/46qPq5GvU.png og:image:alt: Constance Crozier: Forecasting s-curves is hard og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Constance Crozier: Forecasting s-curves is hard **[swyx](https://daily.dev/sources/swyx)** · [@swyx](https://daily.dev/swyx) · 5 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary A repost and preservation of Constance Crozier's 2020 blog post explaining why forecasting S-curves is difficult while living through them. Using animated examples, the post demonstrates that even with idealized data, the best-fit S-curve estimate remains wildly inaccurate during the exponential and linear growth phases — only converging on the correct curve once the data begins to level off. The framing note observes how early-phase exponential hype tends to fade once invisible asymptotes are reached, and that domain-specific contextual knowledge is needed to make reliable S-curve predictions. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [The Sigmoids Won't Save You](https://daily.dev/posts/the-sigmoids-won-t-save-you-samtmqzpt) · Hacker News · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Why Forecasting Infectious Diseases Is Harder Than Predicting Sales \(And What Data Scientists Can Learn From It\)](https://daily.dev/posts/why-forecasting-infectious-diseases-is-harder-than-predicting-sales-and-what-data-scientists-can-le-vnxqgkioa) · Medium · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [The Unreasonable Difficulty of Time Series Forecasting](https://daily.dev/posts/the-unreasonable-difficulty-of-time-series-forecasting-yozpddbsw) · Hacker News · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Five Technology Shifts In: Why the Hype Curve Lies in Both Directions](https://daily.dev/posts/five-technology-shifts-in-why-the-hype-curve-lies-in-both-directions-5xhymdmok) · DevOps.com · 1 upvotes · 0 comments --- Tags: [#statistics](https://daily.dev/tags/statistics) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/constance-crozier-forecasting-s-curves-is-hard-46qpq5gvu) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"Constance Crozier: Forecasting s-curves is hard","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/constance-crozier-forecasting-s-curves-is-hard-46qpq5gvu","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/constance-crozier-forecasting-s-curves-is-hard-46qpq5gvu"},"datePublished":"2026-02-27T03:19:28.419Z","dateModified":"2026-02-28T00:00:08.993Z","description":"A repost and preservation of Constance Crozier's 2020 blog post explaining why forecasting S-curves is difficult while living through them. 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