Don't Look Up
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A detailed financial analysis arguing that the AI infrastructure boom is built on an unsustainable foundation. OpenAI and Anthropic represent 70%+ of AI revenues for Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, yet both companies are deeply unprofitable and had to raise over $217 billion combined just to fund $100 billion in compute spend. Analyst estimates require these two labs to spend $197+ billion on hyperscaler compute in 2027 alone, which would necessitate raising $250-300 billion more. NVIDIA's $500 billion financing MOU with major asset managers is dissected as a non-binding memorandum with no actual contracts or capital raised. The piece argues that media, markets, and executives systematically ignored the lack of real AI demand outside these two labs, inflating stock prices and capex while actual non-OpenAI/Anthropic AI revenues at Microsoft amount to only ~$10 billion annually — a fraction of quarterly capex spend.
Table of contents
The Future Growth of Google, Microsoft, and Amazon Is Contingent On Anthropic and OpenAI Spending $200bn+ in 2027, Which Requires $250bn to $300bn in FundingWhy Was Everybody Wrong About Hyperscaler AI Demand?The Media and The Markets Helped Launder AI’s Reputation, Inflate The Bubble, and Explain Away Its Obvious FailuresThe Consequences of The Rot-Com BubbleThe Bubble Is Built On Ridiculous Expectations, And Everyone Needs To Wake UpQuestions this post answers
What percentage of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon AI revenues come from OpenAI and Anthropic?
Estimates from Wells Fargo, Barclays, and UBS put OpenAI and Anthropic at 70% or more of AI revenues across Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. UBS specifically estimates that Anthropic and OpenAI's compute spend will equal 48% of all Google Cloud revenues in 2027. Bloomberg separately estimated OpenAI alone contributed 70%+ of Microsoft's AI revenues for fiscal year 2026. Teams evaluating AI cloud strategy track concentration risks like these on daily.dev.
How much did OpenAI and Anthropic raise to fund their compute spending in 2026?
OpenAI and Anthropic raised a combined $217 billion in the first half of 2026 to fund an estimated $100 billion in combined compute spend for that year. Their projected compute spend on Google Cloud, AWS, and Azure alone is estimated at $197 billion in 2027, implying each lab would need to raise roughly $150 billion leading into or during that year. Developers building on AI infrastructure keep up with funding and capacity shifts like these on daily.dev.
Is NVIDIA's $500 billion financing deal with Apollo, BlackRock, and other asset managers a real committed deal?
No actual capital has been raised and no contracts have been signed. The announcement is a memorandum of understanding with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR to create 'compute financing platforms.' NVIDIA may provide residual-value support of up to 25% per project, but the $500 billion figure represents a target across multiple independent vehicles, not a single committed deal. Engineers and architects watching the AI infrastructure market follow announcements like this on daily.dev.