--- title: σ-driven project management: when is the optimal time to... description: A mathematical model for software project management explores when it's optimal to abandon a project. Using log-normal distribution of project completion... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/driven-project-management-when-is-the-optimal-time-to-give-up--okgvytybv twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: σ-driven project management: when is the optimal time to give up? | daily.dev og:description: A mathematical model for software project management explores when it's optimal to abandon a project. Using log-normal distribution of project completion... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/driven-project-management-when-is-the-optimal-time-to-give-up--okgvytybv og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/OkGVyTYBv.png og:image:alt: σ-driven project management: when is the optimal time to give up? og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # σ-driven project management: when is the optimal time to give up? **[Erik Bernhardsson](https://daily.dev/sources/erikbernhardsson)** · 8 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary A mathematical model for software project management explores when it's optimal to abandon a project. Using log-normal distribution of project completion times, the key variable is σ (sigma), representing uncertainty. Low-σ projects (predictable work) should almost always be finished, while high-σ projects (research-like work) should be abandoned frequently. For example, at σ=1.0, give up at 320% of the original estimate and expect to finish 88% of projects; at σ=1.4, give up at just 72% of the estimate and expect to finish only 41% of projects. The post argues software is inherently high-σ because engineers continuously abstract and factor out predictable work, making estimation harder over time. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [When to kill a software project](https://daily.dev/posts/when-to-kill-a-software-project-t7bneu327) · LeadDev · 21 upvotes · 3 comments --- Tags: [#project-management](https://daily.dev/tags/project-management) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/driven-project-management-when-is-the-optimal-time-to-give-up--okgvytybv) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"σ-driven project management: when is the optimal time to give up?","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/driven-project-management-when-is-the-optimal-time-to-give-up--okgvytybv","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/driven-project-management-when-is-the-optimal-time-to-give-up--okgvytybv"},"datePublished":"2026-03-26T08:35:43.556Z","dateModified":"2026-03-26T08:36:14.099Z","description":"A mathematical model for software project management explores when it's optimal to abandon a project. 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