Morgan Stanley has doubled its AI-driven job loss forecast for European banks from 10% to 20% of the workforce — roughly 400,000 roles — by 2030. The revision reflects accelerating AI adoption in back-office, compliance, and risk functions, with concrete cuts already underway at ABN Amro, HSBC, UBS, and Société Générale. The bank frames the shift as a structural recomposition rather than a flat reduction, with data engineers and AI specialists replacing traditional compliance and back-office staff. European labour laws may slow the pace, with attrition and managed exits expected to be the primary mechanisms. The 20% figure remains a forecast, and the actual outcome likely falls between 10–20% depending on shareholder pressure and political costs.
