A nine-year retrospective on annual cloud native predictions, scored honestly. The author reflects on the discipline of public prediction-making, the recurring blind spot of underestimating pace of structural change, and the emotional gap between analytical forecasting and wishful thinking. Key observations: the cloud native landscape shifted from Kubernetes tooling (2018) to platform engineering (2022) to AI infrastructure (2024+); perfect prediction scores signal safe, obvious calls rather than genuine insight; and the 'platform engineering assembly tax' names the compounding inertia that explains why predicted changes arrive slower than expected.
Table of contents
The disciplineBeing wrong in publicThe arcThe recurring blind spotThe gapWhat we're trying next253 Impressions