--- title: NYC subway math | daily.dev description: An analysis of NYC subway arrival data collected via the MTA real-time API over several weeks. The author explores the distribution of train intervals, waiting... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/nyc-subway-math-yiouteryu twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: NYC subway math | daily.dev og:description: An analysis of NYC subway arrival data collected via the MTA real-time API over several weeks. The author explores the distribution of train intervals, waiting... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/nyc-subway-math-yiouteryu og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/yiOuTeryU.png og:image:alt: NYC subway math og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # NYC subway math **[Erik Bernhardsson](https://daily.dev/sources/erikbernhardsson)** · 7 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary An analysis of NYC subway arrival data collected via the MTA real-time API over several weeks. The author explores the distribution of train intervals, waiting times by subway line and time of day, and the 'sunk cost' question of when to give up waiting. Key finding: after about 5 minutes of waiting during daytime hours, the longer you've waited, the longer you'll likely still have to wait. The analysis connects to probability concepts like memorylessness and fat-tailed distributions, and suggests an optimal give-up threshold of around 11 minutes for a 90th-percentile 30-minute budget. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [Hourly Subway Station Flows](https://daily.dev/posts/hourly-subway-station-flows-tsvukivsk) · R-bloggers · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Bad Weather and the Subway](https://daily.dev/posts/bad-weather-and-the-subway-dk1xue9ix) · R-bloggers · 0 upvotes · 0 comments --- Tags: [#python](https://daily.dev/tags/python), [#data-analysis](https://daily.dev/tags/data-analysis) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/nyc-subway-math-yiouteryu) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"NYC subway math","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/nyc-subway-math-yiouteryu","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/nyc-subway-math-yiouteryu"},"datePublished":"2026-03-26T08:35:16.248Z","dateModified":"2026-03-26T08:38:00.736Z","description":"An analysis of NYC subway arrival data collected via the MTA real-time API over several weeks. The author explores the distribution of train intervals, waiting...","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/49a3f9c16d9c941fff62884de1dc15a7?_a=AQAEuop","thumbnailUrl":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/49a3f9c16d9c941fff62884de1dc15a7?_a=AQAEuop","isAccessibleForFree":true,"articleSection":"Erik Bernhardsson","inLanguage":"en","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180}},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Erik Bernhardsson","logo":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/s--SlM88DTW--/f_auto,q_auto/v1774514112/logos/erikbernhardsson?_a=BAMAMiWQ0","url":"https://daily.dev/sources/erikbernhardsson"},"commentCount":0,"discussionUrl":"https://daily.dev/posts/nyc-subway-math-yiouteryu","interactionStatistic":[{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":0},{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"CommentAction"},"userInteractionCount":0}],"keywords":"python,data-analysis","timeRequired":"PT7M"} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https://daily.dev"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Erik Bernhardsson","item":"https://daily.dev/sources/erikbernhardsson"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"NYC subway math"}]} ```