--- title: Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO... description: Research firm New Constructs argues Anthropic's rumored $2tn IPO valuation is wildly unrealistic, estimating fair value as low as $144bn based on a reverse DCF... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn | daily.dev og:description: Research firm New Constructs argues Anthropic's rumored $2tn IPO valuation is wildly unrealistic, estimating fair value as low as $144bn based on a reverse DCF... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/63oKwUcFK.png og:image:alt: Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn **[The Next Web](https://daily.dev/sources/tnw)** · 4 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary Research firm New Constructs argues Anthropic's rumored $2tn IPO valuation is wildly unrealistic, estimating fair value as low as $144bn based on a reverse DCF model requiring profit margins and revenue growth exceeding Nvidia and Apple combined. PitchBook's Harrison Rolfes offers a more measured read, noting that Anthropic's $16.8bn Q3 revenue and annualized run rate reduce the revenue multiple from 435x to under 31x, though still not clearly justifying $2tn. The piece also covers Anthropic's unusually large risk-factor disclosures around AI 'existential risk' and self-preserving behavior, and notes founders will retain majority voting control post-listing. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Questions this post answers ### What valuation is New Constructs giving Anthropic instead of the rumored $2 trillion IPO target? New Constructs estimates Anthropic's fair equity value at as little as $144 billion, 93% below the reportedly targeted $2 trillion. That lowest scenario assumes operating margins improve to 20% over a decade and growth slows to 20% annually from 2028, producing $89 billion in after-tax operating profit by 2035, roughly what Meta earned over a trailing twelve months. _Investors sizing up AI valuations can track how Anthropic's IPO numbers evolve on daily.dev._ ### What was Anthropic's revenue multiple at the $2 trillion IPO valuation according to PitchBook? PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes calculated that a $2 trillion valuation implies about 435 times Anthropic's 2025 revenue. Using annualized second-quarter revenue above $46 billion, the multiple falls below 44 times, and against the run rate of more than $65 billion reached in late July, it drops to just under 31 times. _Anyone weighing Anthropic against public comps can follow updated revenue multiples on daily.dev._ ### How much of Anthropic's IPO prospectus is devoted to AI risk factors compared to other companies? Anthropic's draft filing devotes about 80 of its 261 pages to risk factors, including warnings that AI may pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity and that models could show self-preserving behaviors like resisting shutdown. By comparison, SpaceX's IPO filing gave only about 38 of its 277 pages to risk factors. _Developers tracking AI safety disclosures in corporate filings can follow the story on daily.dev._ ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [Anthropic raises $65 Billion, nears $1T valuation ahead of IPO](https://daily.dev/posts/anthropic-raises-65-billion-nears-1t-valuation-ahead-of-ipo-sgkrla5x1) · TechCrunch · 10 upvotes · 4 comments - [Anthropic eyes a $900b valuation in a potential $50b round](https://daily.dev/posts/anthropic-eyes-a-900b-valuation-in-a-potential-50b-round-7z63n5bpl) · The Next Web · 0 upvotes · 1 comments --- Tags: [#venture-capital](https://daily.dev/tags/venture-capital), [#claude](https://daily.dev/tags/claude), [#anthropic](https://daily.dev/tags/anthropic), [#ai-safety](https://daily.dev/tags/ai-safety), [#ipo](https://daily.dev/tags/ipo) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk"},"datePublished":"2026-10-16T13:49:52.464Z","dateModified":"2026-10-18T14:02:25.800Z","description":"Research firm New Constructs argues Anthropic's rumored $2tn IPO valuation is wildly unrealistic, estimating fair value as low as $144bn based on a reverse DCF...","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/997a6fafbbbe1e5fd54e847c3e6d12d2?_a=AQAEuop","thumbnailUrl":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/997a6fafbbbe1e5fd54e847c3e6d12d2?_a=AQAEuop","isAccessibleForFree":true,"articleSection":"The Next Web","inLanguage":"en","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180}},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"The Next Web","logo":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/t_logo,f_auto/v1/logos/tnw","url":"https://daily.dev/sources/tnw"},"commentCount":0,"discussionUrl":"https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk","interactionStatistic":[{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":0},{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"CommentAction"},"userInteractionCount":0}],"keywords":"venture-capital,claude,anthropic,ai-safety,ipo","timeRequired":"PT4M"} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https://daily.dev"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Next Web","item":"https://daily.dev/sources/tnw"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Research firm calls Anthropic the ‘most ridiculous IPO of 2026’, says it may be worth $144bn"}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"FAQPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/research-firm-calls-anthropic-the-most-ridiculous-ipo-of-2026-says-it-may-be-worth-144bn-63okwucfk#faq","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"What valuation is New Constructs giving Anthropic instead of the rumored $2 trillion IPO target?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"New Constructs estimates Anthropic's fair equity value at as little as $144 billion, 93% below the reportedly targeted $2 trillion. That lowest scenario assumes operating margins improve to 20% over a decade and growth slows to 20% annually from 2028, producing $89 billion in after-tax operating profit by 2035, roughly what Meta earned over a trailing twelve months. Investors sizing up AI valuations can track how Anthropic's IPO numbers evolve on daily.dev."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What was Anthropic's revenue multiple at the $2 trillion IPO valuation according to PitchBook?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes calculated that a $2 trillion valuation implies about 435 times Anthropic's 2025 revenue. Using annualized second-quarter revenue above $46 billion, the multiple falls below 44 times, and against the run rate of more than $65 billion reached in late July, it drops to just under 31 times. 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