Technology waves like the internet, mobile, cloud, and AI can make or break businesses. A practical four-step framework helps leaders evaluate each wave: assess whether the technology actually matters, understand how it works, identify what new behaviors it enables, and determine whether it impacts your business. Two common failure modes are laziness (ignoring waves entirely) and fear of embarrassment (blindly over-rotating into hype without real understanding). When a wave is missed, the right response is to acknowledge it publicly, pivot resources aggressively, and follow through personally. The key insight is that truly significant waves are eventually obvious — missing them is the greatest strategic sin, but detecting them doesn't require genius.
