---
title: "Software estimates have never worked and never will"
url: https://daily.dev/posts/software-estimates-have-never-worked-and-never-will-s9rubu7sl
source_url: https://world.hey.com/dhh/software-estimates-have-never-worked-and-never-will-a41a9c71
type: article
source: "David Heinemeier Hansson"
published: 2024-08-19T19:01:45.091Z
updated: 2024-11-08T08:48:17.561Z
tags: ["agile", "project-management"]
reading_time: 3
upvotes: 473
comments: 32
language: en
---

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# Software estimates have never worked and never will

**[David Heinemeier Hansson](https://daily.dev/sources/dhh)** · 3 min read · 473 upvotes · 32 comments

## Summary

Estimating software development time has been a consistent failure since the inception of computing. The industry persists in trying this flawed method despite decades of unsuccessful attempts. The challenge lies in the novelty of most software projects, which defy precise upfront specifications. Instead of relying on estimates, shifting to a flexible development approach using budgets or appetites, as advocated by the Shape Up methodology, can lead to more successful and timely software delivery.

## Full article

daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: <https://world.hey.com/dhh/software-estimates-have-never-worked-and-never-will-a41a9c71>

## Community discussion

Top comments from developers on daily.dev.

**@henriqueleite42** · 12 upvotes

> They work fine
> ![meme](https://res.cloudinary.com/daily-now/image/upload/s--FXhSLIrx--/f_auto/v1724344785/ugc/content_70ee9724-bfde-443a-8735-2b78310448b5)

**@mroluseye** · 10 upvotes

> I’ve found story splitting works better than story point estimations in the context of software development. If a module can’t be done in a day, it should be split.

**@hutchjackson** · 5 upvotes

> There is a pretty simple method , but almost no one takes the time for it.  In fact I've estimated a couple dozen 4 to 9 month projects that have always come out on time. I'll write it up in another post.
>
> Agile is a distraction from estimating medium to large projects and detracts.

**@shanithakur** · 5 upvotes

> The real pain is when non tech guy gave estimation to client

**@riskvrocks** · 3 upvotes

> Software estimating actually prevents you from creating great projects, setting a deadline, not micromanaging, and letting the experienced developers create a sequence that they don't know themselves because it changes on the fly. The sequence changes on the fly based on whether you feel like you are having a great day or a bad day. Great day, I am going to solve this bug that no one could solve for 2 years, bad day, I am going to do boring stuff like clean up code. Sometimes I have a great week and solve complex problems in one go, but then I need a recovery week to prevent burnout.
>
> With...

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---

Tags: [#agile](https://daily.dev/tags/agile), [#project-management](https://daily.dev/tags/project-management)

[View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/software-estimates-have-never-worked-and-never-will-s9rubu7sl)