SpaceX's S-1 IPO filing and a recent Starship test flight reveal a more uncertain path to full rocket reusability than previously expected. Without reusability, Starship launch costs may not significantly undercut Falcon 9, potentially undermining SpaceX's ability to cheaply replenish Starlink satellites. Meanwhile, Starlink's growth is slowing — subscriber growth fell in Q1 2026, average revenue per user dropped from $99 to $66, and competition from Amazon's Kuiper network is intensifying. The S-1 acknowledges that full Starship reusability isn't strictly required for the next Starlink satellite generation, but expendable launches would erode the cost advantages Elon Musk has staked the company's future on. Analysts warn the total addressable market for space broadband may be smaller than anticipated.
