The 2021-2022 semiconductor shortage has split into two distinct situations: leading-edge capacity (7-14nm) has eased due to declining PC and mobile demand, while trailing-edge nodes (40-180nm) used for automotive and industrial microcontrollers remain severely constrained. Mature-node fabs run on fully-depreciated equipment with no economic incentive to add new capacity, since new fabs cannot be profitable at historically low chip prices. Executives from Microchip Technology and NXP describe ongoing supply constraints, rising foundry costs being passed to customers, and the adoption of non-cancelable non-reschedulable (NCNR) orders to stabilize supply chains. Industry analysts warn of a broader semiconductor downturn in 2023, but the trailing-edge shortage may persist for multiple cycles. The author predicts the mature-node imbalance could take until roughly 2029 to structurally resolve, requiring coordinated industry action rather than normal cyclical correction.
