--- title: The OpenAI Bubble | daily.dev description: Ed Zitron argues that the entire AI industry bubble is fundamentally dependent on OpenAI's continued existence, and that OpenAI is financially unsustainable.... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: The OpenAI Bubble | daily.dev og:description: Ed Zitron argues that the entire AI industry bubble is fundamentally dependent on OpenAI's continued existence, and that OpenAI is financially unsustainable.... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/DaKwL1Z1M.png og:image:alt: The OpenAI Bubble og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # The OpenAI Bubble **[Where's Your Ed At](https://daily.dev/sources/wheresyoured)** · 80 min read · 23 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary Ed Zitron argues that the entire AI industry bubble is fundamentally dependent on OpenAI's continued existence, and that OpenAI is financially unsustainable. He contends that OpenAI and Anthropic were effectively hyperscaler-funded psy-ops that created the illusion of a new class of AI companies, justifying over a trillion dollars in capital expenditure with no real ROI. OpenAI faces $852 billion in compute commitments, rapidly churning subscribers, collapsing ad revenue projections, legal threats from Apple, and an IPO delay — all pointing toward inevitable collapse. Zitron also details how OpenAI's memory deals with Samsung and SK Hynix have contributed to a global RAM shortage driving up consumer electronics prices. He concludes that when OpenAI fails, it will trigger a cascade across AI startups, data center debt, and the broader tech investment ecosystem. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Questions this post answers ### How much has OpenAI committed to spend on compute through 2030? OpenAI intends to burn over $852 billion by the end of 2030, including $748 billion in remaining performance obligations owed to Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, plus at least $70 billion more across Cerebras, CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Lambda, and Nscale, alongside billions in Broadcom Jalapeno chip commitments and $50 billion or more in compute spending planned for the current year alone. _For developers tracking whether AI infrastructure spending is sustainable, daily.dev surfaces ongoing analysis of OpenAI's compute economics._ ### Why did S&P Global downgrade Oracle's credit rating? S&P Global downgraded Oracle to BBB/A-2, one step above junk grade, because OpenAI makes up roughly half of Oracle's $638 billion in remaining performance obligations and its ability to pay depends on continued AI tailwinds and market leadership. If OpenAI can't pay, Oracle risks being stuck with massive, hard-to-exit data center leases. _Engineers evaluating cloud vendor stability can follow how customer concentration risk like this plays out on daily.dev._ ### What percentage of ChatGPT users actually pay for a subscription? Only about 5% of ChatGPT's roughly 900 million weekly active users pay for a subscription, and a projected 80% of its $20-a-month Plus subscribers were expected to churn in 2026, dropping from 44 million to about 9 million users made up using cheaper subscription tiers, according to OpenAI's own internal projections. _Developers weighing reliance on OpenAI's paid tiers can track user and revenue trends like this on daily.dev._ ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [Ars Live recap: Is the AI bubble about to pop? Ed Zitron weighs in.](https://daily.dev/posts/ars-live-recap-is-the-ai-bubble-about-to-pop-ed-zitron-weighs-in--qjls6f0kb) · Ars Technica · 0 upvotes · 0 comments --- Tags: [#ai](https://daily.dev/tags/ai), [#llm](https://daily.dev/tags/llm), [#openai](https://daily.dev/tags/openai), [#anthropic](https://daily.dev/tags/anthropic) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"The OpenAI Bubble","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m"},"datePublished":"2026-07-15T17:00:21.232Z","dateModified":"2026-09-13T18:51:14.869Z","description":"Ed Zitron argues that the entire AI industry bubble is fundamentally dependent on OpenAI's continued existence, and that OpenAI is financially unsustainable....","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/574adc906abb37956ea31d3307bf03c0?_a=AQAEuop","thumbnailUrl":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/574adc906abb37956ea31d3307bf03c0?_a=AQAEuop","isAccessibleForFree":true,"articleSection":"Where's Your Ed At","inLanguage":"en","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180}},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Where's Your Ed At","logo":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/s--_fiBlTSf--/f_auto/v1737645971/logos/wheresyoured","url":"https://daily.dev/sources/wheresyoured"},"commentCount":0,"discussionUrl":"https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m","interactionStatistic":[{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":23},{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"CommentAction"},"userInteractionCount":0}],"keywords":"ai,llm,openai,anthropic","timeRequired":"PT80M"} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https://daily.dev"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Where's Your Ed At","item":"https://daily.dev/sources/wheresyoured"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"The OpenAI Bubble"}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"FAQPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/the-openai-bubble-dakwl1z1m#faq","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"How much has OpenAI committed to spend on compute through 2030?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"OpenAI intends to burn over $852 billion by the end of 2030, including $748 billion in remaining performance obligations owed to Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle, plus at least $70 billion more across Cerebras, CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Lambda, and Nscale, alongside billions in Broadcom Jalapeno chip commitments and $50 billion or more in compute spending planned for the current year alone. 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