The smartphone market is in big trouble
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Global smartphone shipments are projected to fall 13.9% in 2026 to 1.08 billion units, the steepest annual decline on record, according to Counterpoint Research. A worsening memory chip shortage, aggravated by the Iran war, is the primary driver. Chip makers are prioritizing AI-related chip production, squeezing supply for entry-level devices. Wholesale prices rose 14% in Q1 while shipments dropped 3.1% year-on-year. Budget-focused brands are hit hardest — Transsion faces a 32% shipment decline, Xiaomi 28%, and Honor 20%. Premium players are more resilient: Apple's shipments are expected to remain flat before rising 5% next year, and Samsung is projected to see only a 4% decline.
