--- title: The unregulated online market betting on South Africa’s... description: Polymarket is taking unregulated bets on who will become mayor of South Africa's eight metros ahead of the 4 November local elections. It gives Cape Town's... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/the-unregulated-online-market-betting-on-south-africa-s-next-mayors-savvjnule twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: The unregulated online market betting on South Africa’s next mayors | daily.dev og:description: Polymarket is taking unregulated bets on who will become mayor of South Africa's eight metros ahead of the 4 November local elections. It gives Cape Town's... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/the-unregulated-online-market-betting-on-south-africa-s-next-mayors-savvjnule og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/SavVjnule.png og:image:alt: The unregulated online market betting on South Africa’s next mayors og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # The unregulated online market betting on South Africa’s next mayors **[TechCentral](https://daily.dev/sources/techcentral)** · 4 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary Polymarket is taking unregulated bets on who will become mayor of South Africa's eight metros ahead of the 4 November local elections. It gives Cape Town's Geordin Hill-Lewis a 96% chance and Johannesburg's Helen Zille 52%. Trades settle in pUSD, which according to the company's documentation is backed by USDC, and are recorded on the Polygon blockchain, with outcomes resolved through UMA. Total volume across the eight metro markets is about $379,000, with Johannesburg at $135,000 and Cape Town at $11,700. South African gambling law makes no provision for prediction markets, and the Bookmakers' Association wants them treated as part of the illegal offshore gambling market until a dedicated legal framework exists. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Questions this post answers ### How does Polymarket determine the probability shown for a political outcome like a mayoral race The price of a contract doubles as the market's probability estimate, since each 'yes' contract pays out $1 if correct and nothing if wrong. A contract trading at 52 cents implies a 52% chance of that outcome, and buying it at that price nets 48 cents per contract if the bet proves correct. _Developers curious how blockchain-based prediction markets price outcomes can follow explainers like this on daily.dev._ ### What token does Polymarket use to settle trades and what backs its value Trades settle in pUSD, Polymarket's own token, which according to the company's documentation is backed one-for-one by USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. Contracts are recorded on Polygon, a public blockchain, so every trade can be verified. Users can fund accounts with cryptocurrency or through intermediaries like Coinbase and MoonPay. _Anyone evaluating crypto-settled platforms can dig into token mechanics like this via daily.dev._ ### Is Polymarket legal to use for South African users betting on local elections South Africa is not on Polymarket's list of restricted jurisdictions, so users there can trade freely, unlike users in the US, UK, France, Australia, and Zimbabwe who can only close existing positions. South African gambling law only permits betting through bookmakers licensed by provincial gambling boards and makes no provision for prediction markets, leaving a regulatory gap. _Developers tracking fintech regulation gaps can stay on top of cases like this through daily.dev._ ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [Spain blocks Polymarket and Kalshi over missing gambling licences](https://daily.dev/posts/spain-blocks-polymarket-and-kalshi-over-missing-gambling-licences-yt6jwo3ak) · The Next Web · 5 upvotes · 1 comments - [Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets](https://daily.dev/posts/newly-created-polymarket-accounts-win-big-on-well-timed-iran-ceasefire-bets-lrta7rsvh) · Hacker News · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Schneier on Security](https://daily.dev/posts/schneier-on-security-wmcbsxkmf) · Schneier on Security · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [South Africa’s stablecoin silence is becoming a policy failure](https://daily.dev/posts/south-africa-s-stablecoin-silence-is-becoming-a-policy-failure-nsnexydlo) · TechCentral · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Polymarket continues its partnership spree with a Major League Baseball deal](https://daily.dev/posts/polymarket-continues-its-partnership-spree-with-a-major-league-baseball-deal-2ebdkx4km) · TechCrunch · 0 upvotes · 0 comments --- Tags: [#blockchain](https://daily.dev/tags/blockchain), [#fintech](https://daily.dev/tags/fintech), [#regulation](https://daily.dev/tags/regulation), [#polymarket](https://daily.dev/tags/polymarket) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/the-unregulated-online-market-betting-on-south-africa-s-next-mayors-savvjnule) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"The unregulated online market betting on South Africa’s next mayors","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/the-unregulated-online-market-betting-on-south-africa-s-next-mayors-savvjnule","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/the-unregulated-online-market-betting-on-south-africa-s-next-mayors-savvjnule"},"datePublished":"2026-10-27T07:24:02.936Z","dateModified":"2026-10-27T07:24:34.204Z","description":"Polymarket is taking unregulated bets on who will become mayor of South Africa's eight metros ahead of the 4 November local elections. 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A contract trading at 52 cents implies a 52% chance of that outcome, and buying it at that price nets 48 cents per contract if the bet proves correct. Developers curious how blockchain-based prediction markets price outcomes can follow explainers like this on daily.dev."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What token does Polymarket use to settle trades and what backs its value","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Trades settle in pUSD, Polymarket's own token, which according to the company's documentation is backed one-for-one by USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. Contracts are recorded on Polygon, a public blockchain, so every trade can be verified. Users can fund accounts with cryptocurrency or through intermediaries like Coinbase and MoonPay. Anyone evaluating crypto-settled platforms can dig into token mechanics like this via daily.dev."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Is Polymarket legal to use for South African users betting on local elections","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"South Africa is not on Polymarket's list of restricted jurisdictions, so users there can trade freely, unlike users in the US, UK, France, Australia, and Zimbabwe who can only close existing positions. South African gambling law only permits betting through bookmakers licensed by provincial gambling boards and makes no provision for prediction markets, leaving a regulatory gap. Developers tracking fintech regulation gaps can stay on top of cases like this through daily.dev."}}]} ```