--- title: UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this... description: UBS analysts estimate China's lithography industry is roughly at the maturity level ASML reached in 2004, based on patent analysis of light source and laser... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07 twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this decade | daily.dev og:description: UBS analysts estimate China's lithography industry is roughly at the maturity level ASML reached in 2004, based on patent analysis of light source and laser... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07 og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/PZ2NVDE07.png og:image:alt: UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this decade og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this decade **[The Next Web](https://daily.dev/sources/tnw)** · 3 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary UBS analysts estimate China's lithography industry is roughly at the maturity level ASML reached in 2004, based on patent analysis of light source and laser subsystems, meaning China is unlikely to produce a viable EUV alternative this decade. However, China is expected to reach high-volume manufacturing of immersion DUV machines within two to five years, the category the Dutch government controls via export licences since September 2024. ASML's immersion DUV systems sell for around $90M versus over $200M for EUV gear. China made up 42% of ASML's Q3 2025 net sales, while the company posted €8.8B in Q1 2026 net sales and guided €36-40B for the full year. The analysis suggests Europe's export-control leverage may expire before the technology gap it protects closes. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Questions this post answers ### How much does ASML's immersion DUV lithography machine cost compared to its EUV machine? ASML sells immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems at close to $90 million, compared to more than $200 million for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines. This price gap helps explain why Chinese manufacturers are focused on developing immersion DUV capability rather than chasing EUV, since DUV is both more attainable and commercially attractive. _daily.dev surfaces coverage like this for engineers tracking semiconductor export controls and tooling costs._ ### When did the Netherlands start controlling export licences for ASML's NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i machines? The Dutch government took direct control of export licensing for ASML's NXT:1970i and NXT:1980i immersion DUV machines starting 7 September 2024. Before that date, licensing for those two models ran through Washington, while the newer NXT:2000i and later immersion systems were already under Dutch control. _those following chip export policy shifts can track updates like this on daily.dev._ ### What percentage of ASML's sales came from China recently, and how did the company perform financially? China accounted for 42% of ASML's net sales in the third quarter of 2025, though the company warned of a sharp fall in China revenue this year. Despite that warning, ASML reported €8.8 billion in net sales and €2.8 billion in net income for the first quarter of 2026, with full-year guidance of €36 billion to €40 billion. _daily.dev helps readers monitoring semiconductor market shifts stay across figures like these._ ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [ASML shares fell 6.5% after a report that China has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools](https://daily.dev/posts/asml-shares-fell-6-5-after-a-report-that-china-has-started-mass-producing-duv-lithography-tools-o3zgaxi9d) · The Next Web · 2 upvotes · 4 comments - [The US says ASML’s top chip tool may be in China. ASML says it isn’t](https://daily.dev/posts/the-us-says-asml-s-top-chip-tool-may-be-in-china-asml-says-it-isn-t-fh89eon5c) · TechCrunch · 2 upvotes · 1 comments --- [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this decade","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07"},"datePublished":"2026-09-01T13:48:04.199Z","dateModified":"2026-09-01T13:48:29.421Z","description":"UBS analysts estimate China's lithography industry is roughly at the maturity level ASML reached in 2004, based on patent analysis of light source and laser...","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/8b9926ad4052d4f1e9d44aeae823e67e?_a=AQAEuop","thumbnailUrl":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/8b9926ad4052d4f1e9d44aeae823e67e?_a=AQAEuop","isAccessibleForFree":true,"articleSection":"The Next Web","inLanguage":"en","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180}},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"The Next Web","logo":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/t_logo,f_auto/v1/logos/tnw","url":"https://daily.dev/sources/tnw"},"commentCount":0,"discussionUrl":"https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07","interactionStatistic":[{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":0},{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"CommentAction"},"userInteractionCount":0}],"keywords":"","timeRequired":"PT3M"} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https://daily.dev"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Next Web","item":"https://daily.dev/sources/tnw"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"UBS says China is unlikely to match ASML’s top tool this decade"}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"FAQPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/ubs-says-china-is-unlikely-to-match-asml-s-top-tool-this-decade-pz2nvde07#faq","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"How much does ASML's immersion DUV lithography machine cost compared to its EUV machine?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"ASML sells immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems at close to $90 million, compared to more than $200 million for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines. 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