--- title: US stocks are safe. What you lose isn’t the principal —... description: An extended macro analysis argues that the widely-held belief that US equities are 'safe' obscures a different risk: not a crash, but stagnation. Hyperscaler... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/us-stocks-are-safe-what-you-lose-isn-t-the-principal-it-s-time--a28cdacdz twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: US stocks are safe. What you lose isn’t the principal — it’s time. | daily.dev og:description: An extended macro analysis argues that the widely-held belief that US equities are 'safe' obscures a different risk: not a crash, but stagnation. Hyperscaler... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/us-stocks-are-safe-what-you-lose-isn-t-the-principal-it-s-time--a28cdacdz og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/A28CdACdZ.png og:image:alt: US stocks are safe. What you lose isn’t the principal — it’s time. og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # US stocks are safe. What you lose isn’t the principal — it’s time. **[Medium](https://daily.dev/sources/medium_js)** · 32 min read · 0 upvotes · 0 comments ## Summary An extended macro analysis argues that the widely-held belief that US equities are 'safe' obscures a different risk: not a crash, but stagnation. Hyperscaler AI capex has shifted from being funded by cash flow to debt and equity raises (Alphabet's $84.75B offering, Oracle's $20B stock program), while the ten-year term premium remains unusually low, seemingly held down by an 'absorption machinery' of Fed bill purchases, swap facilities, and stablecoin-driven Treasury demand. The piece walks through three tiers of AI-related debt risk, argues government backstops protect credit events but not stretched valuations (CAPE 42), and draws a historical parallel to 1966-1982, when equities went nowhere nominally for sixteen years while inflation eroded real returns via financial repression. The conclusion: the likely outcome isn't collapse but a long stretch of nominal stability and real erosion, making cash-flow structure more important than diversification. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Questions this post answers ### What percentage of hyperscaler AI capex is now funded by debt instead of cash flow? The debt-funded share of hyperscaler capital expenditure rose from 9% in fiscal 2024 to 32% on a trailing-twelve-month basis by mid-2026. This shift accompanied major capital raises, including Alphabet's record $84.75 billion equity offering in June 2026 and Oracle's $20 billion stock program aimed at defending its BBB credit rating. _daily.dev surfaces analysis like this for anyone tracking how AI infrastructure spending is actually financed._ ### How does CoreWeave's borrowing cost compare between 2024 and 2026? CoreWeave borrowed at a floating rate of 11% in 2024, but by March 2026 it priced $8.5 billion in debt at an A3 rating and 6% interest. The improvement did not reflect safer GPU collateral; instead, repayment shifted from reselling hardware to relying on customer contract payments, relocating risk from inventory to counterparty credit. _investors weighing neocloud credit risk can find deeper funding-structure breakdowns like this on daily.dev._ ### What happened to US stock market real returns between 1966 and 1982? The S&P 500 rose only from 94.06 in February 1966 to 102.42 in August 1982 in nominal price terms, while prices roughly tripled, meaning the real price index fell nearly 60%. Total nominal return was 6.8% annually, three-quarters from dividends, leaving reinvesting investors roughly flat in real terms after sixteen years. _anyone modeling long-horizon portfolio risk can track this kind of historical stagnation analysis on daily.dev._ ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [Goldman Sachs warns of tech bubble](https://daily.dev/posts/goldman-sachs-warns-of-tech-bubble-ncbel8jio) · TechCentral · 12 upvotes · 1 comments - [AI bubble fears spread as SpaceX preps a record IPO](https://daily.dev/posts/ai-bubble-fears-spread-as-spacex-preps-a-record-ipo-vzu7ebklz) · The Next Web · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt \(Part 1\)](https://daily.dev/posts/premium-the-hater-s-guide-to-ai-debt-part-1--p9dmod0fg) · Where's Your Ed At · 3 upvotes · 0 comments --- Tags: [#ai-infrastructure](https://daily.dev/tags/ai-infrastructure), [#investing](https://daily.dev/tags/investing) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/us-stocks-are-safe-what-you-lose-isn-t-the-principal-it-s-time--a28cdacdz) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"US stocks are safe. 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