--- title: Why 2031 Might Be the Last Year Humans Do AI Research description: A speculative forecast, built on claims from Redwood Research's Ryan Greenblatt in a Dwarkesh Podcast debate, argues that by 2030-2031 AI systems will fully... canonical: https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:site: @dailydotdev og:type: website og:site_name: daily.dev og:title: Why 2031 Might Be the Last Year Humans Do AI Research | daily.dev og:description: A speculative forecast, built on claims from Redwood Research's Ryan Greenblatt in a Dwarkesh Podcast debate, argues that by 2030-2031 AI systems will fully... og:url: https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn og:image: https://api.daily.dev/og/posts/FGFuYJmjn.png og:image:alt: Why 2031 Might Be the Last Year Humans Do AI Research og:image:width: 1200 og:image:height: 630 og:locale: en --- > ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://daily.dev/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Why 2031 Might Be the Last Year Humans Do AI Research **[Dev Genius](https://daily.dev/sources/devgenius)** · 11 min read · 6 upvotes · 4 comments ## Summary A speculative forecast, built on claims from Redwood Research's Ryan Greenblatt in a Dwarkesh Podcast debate, argues that by 2030-2031 AI systems will fully automate AI research and development, triggering recursive self-improvement that compresses roughly five years of historical AI progress into a single year. The piece lays out a hypothetical multi-tier training pipeline for turning models into AI researchers, argues that data availability won't bottleneck this process since compute spending dwarfs data spending 10:1 to 20:1, and extends the argument into an 'industrial explosion' where AI-designed chips and robotics reshape the physical economy, culminating in projected artificial superintelligence by 2033. ## Full article daily.dev links to this article rather than hosting it. Read it at the original source: ## Community discussion Top comments from developers on daily.dev. **@musikk** · 3 upvotes > On principle I won't believe anyone who claims they can predict 5+ years into the future. **@adnansabbir** · 1 upvotes > Remember the startup scam culture, > > Promise tons of feature, gain users, get funding > > Do the same as long as you can and exit. > > At some point it blows up. **@ruhabasim** · 0 upvotes > 2031 feels pretty ambitious lol ## Similar posts on daily.dev - [Import AI 455: Automating AI Research](https://daily.dev/posts/import-ai-455-automating-ai-research-6d7rg6jhy) · Import AI · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [Hinton, Bengio and AI lab scientists warn of an intelligence explosion](https://daily.dev/posts/hinton-bengio-and-ai-lab-scientists-warn-of-an-intelligence-explosion-tdfvju6dz) · The Next Web · 7 upvotes · 0 comments - [Forecast: AI won’t replace human devs for at least 5 years](https://daily.dev/posts/forecast-ai-won-t-replace-human-devs-for-at-least-5-years-3bi5nqpqc) · InfoWorld · 0 upvotes · 0 comments - [AI 2040: Plan A](https://daily.dev/posts/ai-2040-plan-a-xqxvttovi) · Hacker News · 3 upvotes · 1 comments --- Tags: [#ai](https://daily.dev/tags/ai), [#machine-learning](https://daily.dev/tags/machine-learning), [#openai](https://daily.dev/tags/openai), [#reinforcement-learning](https://daily.dev/tags/reinforcement-learning) [View this post on daily.dev](https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn) ```json {"@context":"https://schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180},"sameAs":["https://twitter.com/dailydotdev","https://github.com/dailydotdev","https://www.linkedin.com/company/daily-dev-ltd"]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https://daily.dev/#website","url":"https://daily.dev","name":"daily.dev","publisher":{"@id":"https://daily.dev/#organization"},"potentialAction":{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https://daily.dev/search?q={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"TechArticle","headline":"Why 2031 Might Be the Last Year Humans Do AI Research","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn"},"datePublished":"2026-08-23T12:46:21.556Z","dateModified":"2026-09-14T07:06:16.468Z","description":"A speculative forecast, built on claims from Redwood Research's Ryan Greenblatt in a Dwarkesh Podcast debate, argues that by 2030-2031 AI systems will fully...","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/117fd1b7dc1dafc643a56d16d973776c?_a=AQAEuop","thumbnailUrl":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1/posts/117fd1b7dc1dafc643a56d16d973776c?_a=AQAEuop","isAccessibleForFree":true,"articleSection":"Dev Genius","inLanguage":"en","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"daily.dev","url":"https://daily.dev","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","url":"https://daily.dev/apple-touch-icon.png","width":180,"height":180}},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Dev Genius","logo":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/t_logo,f_auto/v1/logos/a79144d7517043e7803ed562e45a99df","url":"https://daily.dev/sources/devgenius"},"commentCount":4,"discussionUrl":"https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn","interactionStatistic":[{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":6},{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"CommentAction"},"userInteractionCount":4}],"keywords":"ai,machine-learning,openai,reinforcement-learning","timeRequired":"PT11M"} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https://daily.dev"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Dev Genius","item":"https://daily.dev/sources/devgenius"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Why 2031 Might Be the Last Year Humans Do AI Research"}]} {"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://daily.dev/posts/why-2031-might-be-the-last-year-humans-do-ai-research-fgfuyjmjn","comment":[{"@type":"Comment","text":"On principle I won’t believe anyone who claims they can predict 5+ years into the future.","datePublished":"2026-08-24T08:07:58.022Z","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/FGFuYJmjn#c-uvm1E3TBp","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Werner Hahn","url":"https://daily.dev/musikk","image":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJr9LIXrt1E5zAmLx3QtOkq4iGvcwdh-t__bh6z4dhVoZyOEgE=s96-c"},"interactionStatistic":{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":3}},{"@type":"Comment","text":"Remember the startup scam culture,\nPromise tons of feature, gain users, get funding\nDo the same as long as you can and exit.\nAt some point it blows up.","datePublished":"2026-08-26T05:31:47.375Z","dateModified":"2026-08-26T13:22:24.051Z","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/FGFuYJmjn#c-SjnNggDD3","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Adnan Sabbir","url":"https://daily.dev/adnansabbir","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/s--G_SfYidB--/f_auto/v1787550924/avatars/avatar_La2WBl8PucNLJlClcpfkS?_a=BAMAMicg0"},"interactionStatistic":{"@type":"InteractionCounter","interactionType":{"@type":"LikeAction"},"userInteractionCount":1}},{"@type":"Comment","text":"2031 feels pretty ambitious lol","datePublished":"2026-08-24T04:33:12.267Z","url":"https://daily.dev/posts/FGFuYJmjn#c-TipPWBE4j","author":{"@type":"Person","name":"Ruhab Asim","url":"https://daily.dev/ruhabasim","image":"https://media.daily.dev/image/upload/s--O0TOmw4y--/f_auto/v1715772965/public/noProfile"}}]} ```